?!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> 张 超:美联储加息后最大的风险:美债赖?/title> </head> <body> <div class="box"> <div class="logo"> <a href="/main.htm"> <img src="/_upload/tpl/00/5c/92/template92/images/logo.png"/></a> </div> <div class="menu"> <div class="menu_left"> <div frag="面板10"> <div frag="窗口10"> <div id="wp_nav_w10"> <ul class="wp_nav" data-nav-config="{drop_v: 'down', drop_w: 'right', dir: 'y', opacity_main: '1', opacity_sub: '0.8', dWidth: '0'}"> <li class="nav-item i1 "> <a href="/411/list.htm" title="概况" target="_self"><span class="item-name">概况</span></a><i class="mark"></i> </li> <li class="nav-item i2 "> <a href="/412/list.htm" title="新闻" target="_self"><span class="item-name">新闻</span></a><i class="mark"></i> </li> <li class="nav-item i3 "> <a href="/413/list.htm" title="观点" target="_self"><span class="item-name">观点</span></a><i class="mark"></i> </li> <li class="nav-item i4 "> <a href="/414/list.htm" 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</tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#cccccc" height="1"></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="border2" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td align="center" height="31"> 发布? <span frag="面板112"><span frag="窗口112" portletmode="articleAttri">姜媛</span>   发布时间:<span frag="面板113"><span frag="窗口113" portletmode="articleAttri">2017-05-22</span></span></span>   浏览次数:<span frag="面板114"><span frag="窗口114" portletmode="articleAttri"><img border="0" style="vertical-align:middle;" src="/_visitcountdisplay?siteId=23&type=3&articleId=116987&dispMode=2" /></span></span> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="article" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="article" valign="top"> <span frag="面板115"><span frag="窗口115" portletmode="articleAttri"><h2 style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><br /></h2><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">作者:张超(太和智库研究员,中国人民大学国家货币研究所研究员)</span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">时间?/span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family:times new roman;font-size:20px;">2016-12-17</span></span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">来源:华尔街见闻</span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">网址?/span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.heiligfuneral.com/943/node/280055"><span style="color:#0000ff;font-family:times new roman;font-size:20px;">http://www.heiligfuneral.com/342/node/280055</span></a></span></span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="text-align:center;"><img style="float:none;" src="/_upload/article/images/c7/e3/0d885b114cf5950505ba947ba163/64c60976-f803-46ba-a2e7-3ce2b1c10b3d.jpg" sudyfile-attr="{'title':'2.jpg'}" data-layer="photo" /></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;"><br /></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">现在很多分析都在预测美联?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">2017</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">年加息次数,分析</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">2017</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">年全球投资配置,都希望自己能成为“巴菲特”,掌握市场脉搏并盈利。但似乎大家忽略了一个基本问题:投资策略里有没有考虑无风险资产的风险。俗话说,好借好还再借不难,但在日常生活中借钱不还钱,钱要不回来这样的事并不少见。借钱的不一定是款爷,但欠钱的一定是大爷。美国世界第一大经济体,美国国债也扮演着“无风险”资产的角色,但美联储加息后我们需要对美国“赖账”的风险重新审视?/span></span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:20px;">  </span></p><h3 style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><a name="_Toc483124688"><span style="color:#00b0f0;font-family:宋体;font-size:24px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">美国国债可能“赖账”吗?/span></a></h3><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">我们看到特朗普胜选以来,以美元指数为代表的美国金融资产价格持续攀升,市场对于特朗普增加财政支出提振美国经济抱有很大期待,但有一个问题必须回答:钱从哪里来?我们看到?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">2008</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">年次贷危机之后,美国政府的债务就开始“飙升”,</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">2016</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">9</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">月底这个国债余额已经接近到</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">20</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">万亿美元。这意味着,如果美国联邦利率每提高</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">0.25%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">,美国政府每年几乎要多支出近</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">500</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">亿美元的利息?/span></span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">“旧债还不上,新债利息高”这就是美国政府面临最棘手的问题,更何况特朗普还要再继续加大基建支出近</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">1</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">万亿美元,钱的来源一定来自继续多借债。而美国作为一个超级大国,大家都想当然默认政府肯定不会违约,至少不会直接违约不还。大家惯性思维认为美国解决债务问题的方案只有“稀释债务”,但是美联储加息打破这个幻想。债务稀释的前提是“印钞”,美联储加息与债务稀释显然是背道而驰,政府旧债已成“烫手山芋”而且还要面对新债成本的继续攀升。那特朗普会不会不按常理出牌,用违约处理美国的债务问题,对于这位敢说敢做的“大嘴”总统,违约似乎无并不是不可接受的事情。这就不难理解为什么全球央行都在抛售美债,谁都怕自己辛辛苦苦挣来的钱打水漂了?/span></span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">有人会说美国国债违约将引发美国主权债务危机,把美国自己拉下水。我同意这样的观点,但还有一个前提,危机的“诱惑”是不是足够大。如果可以一次解?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">20</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">万亿的债务问题,这个数字的诱惑力大不大,我想各位读者会有自己的判断,虽然我们只能看着而并不能决定任何事情。那我们怎么办?</span></span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:20px;">  </span></p><h3 style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><a href="http://www.heiligfuneral.com/">ַ,ŶIJ,Ǯ齫,ϲ</a></h3><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">我们为什么使用美元?因为支付便利?因为无限制流通?因为所有人都在使用?可能我们每个人都有一个使用美元的理由,但最核心的问题是大家相信美元的信用!美元的发行不同于其他国家,简单说是基于美国国债,美元是美国政府对美联储或者说使用美元者的负债,如果美国国债违约即意味着美元彻底没有了信用,那么我们还能相信什么?</span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">这个答案就在两个字:黄金。虽然我们现在看待黄金已经习惯了从“商品”或“金融资产”的角度看待黄金,认为没有利息的黄金是在美元加息周期中最先被抛弃的资产,但我们恰恰忽略了黄金最重要的属性—最终信用,尤其我们现在面临美元信用的崩溃。其实,无论是从</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">1971</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">8</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">15</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">日尼克松宣布放弃“布林顿森林体系”,还是</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">1976</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">1</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">8</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">日基于牙买加协议的浮动汇率制建立,人类摆脱黄金的货币支持都不?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">50</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">年,我们是否要回头再寻找黄金支持?答案可以从数据中找?/span></span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">我们从数据上发现,似乎除了美国以外,其他国家在买入黄金?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">2016</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">7</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">月之前美国投资者都是在持续买入,黄金信托基金(</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">GLD</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">)持仓量?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">3160</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">万盎司。从</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">7</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">月开始,黄金持续流出?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">430</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">万盎司,?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">2016</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">12</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">月第二周就卖?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">25.7</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">万盎司。与此同时,中国投资者正在大量收购黄金?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">11</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">月份,上海黄金交易所?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">SGE</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">)的黄金流出规模达到</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">215</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">吨,而黄金流出量是中国对于黄金零售的需求总量的重要指标。同时,我们虽然无法准确得知中国央行对黄金的需求是多少,但香港黄金的进出口量可以给我们一个趋势性判断?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">2016</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">年上半年,中国进口黄?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">1730</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">亿元人民币,总体下降</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">14.9%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">,但?/span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:20px;">10</span></span><span style="font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;">月起,由于黄金价格下跌以及人民币贬值,中国连续第二个月增加了自香港的黄金进口,低位收储黄金的进程在加快。如果综合观察央行们减持美国国债和增加黄金收储这两个相逆的操作,我想黄金重回信用支持的时日不会太久?/span></span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="background:#d9d9d9;font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;mso-shading:white;mso-pattern:gray-15 auto;">本文作者为太和智库研究员张超博士,来源于微信公众号“宏观经济观察”,授权华尔街见闻发表。关注作者更多文章可点击作者头像关注。本文为作者个人观点,不代表华尔街见闻立场?/span></p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;font-size:20px;">  </p><p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0px;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="background:#d9d9d9;font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;mso-shading:white;mso-pattern:gray-15 auto;">张超,太和智库研究员,中国人民大学国家货币研究所研究员。中国人民大学信息学院本科毕业,美国哥伦比亚大学</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="background:#d9d9d9;font-family:times new roman;font-size:20px;mso-shading:white;mso-pattern:gray-15 auto;">SIPA</span><span style="background:#d9d9d9;font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;mso-shading:white;mso-pattern:gray-15 auto;">学院硕士研究生毕业,师从欧元之父蒙代尔教授,英国雷丁大学</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="background:#d9d9d9;font-family:times new roman;font-size:20px;mso-shading:white;mso-pattern:gray-15 auto;">Henley</span><span style="background:#d9d9d9;font-family:宋体;font-size:20px;mso-ascii-font-family:times new roman;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:times new roman;mso-shading:white;mso-pattern:gray-15 auto;">商学院博士研究生。主要研究方向为宏观经济学、全球货币政策、中国资本市场改革、债券市场发展以及人民币国际化等领域?/span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><img src="/_ueditor/themes/default/images/icon_pdf.gif" /><a href="/_upload/article/files/c7/e3/0d885b114cf5950505ba947ba163/2b78d832-453d-4136-958d-6784e4e84cad.pdf" sudy-wp-player="2b78d832-453d-4136-958d-6784e4e84cad.js" sudyfile-attr="{'title':'《话语中国》特?——特朗普时代的美国金融政策与中美关系.pdf'}">《话语中国》特?——特朗普时代的美国金融政策与中美关系.pdf</a></p></span></span> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </td> <td valign="top" width="99"></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div class="clear"></div> </div> </div> <div class="foot"> <div frag="面板12"> <div frag="窗口12"> <div class="articlecontent " > 复旦大学中国研究院|版权所有|上海市杨浦区邯郸?20号(光华楼东主楼7楼) </div> </div> </div> </div> <table border="1" width="100%" style="text-align: center"> <tr> <td><վ</td> <td><վ</td> <td><a href="http://www.operationultra.com/">ɳ,mgֳ,,ְټ</a></td> <td><վ</td> <td><a href="http://www.besttowerfan01.com/436/883/">,ɳij,ֶij,</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td><վ</td> <td><վ</td> <td><a href="http://www.aqua-centech.com/">زij,ط,ֽӯ,Ŷţҳ</a></td> <td><վ</td> <td><a href="http://www.meaning-full.com/839/">ogƽ̨,,ΰ,Ŷij</a></td> </tr> <tr> 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